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Gacha Pull Probability Calculator

Chance to pull a rated item across N pulls

Result

41.82%
58.18%

How it is calculated

Each pull is treated as an independent trial with the same drop rate. none = (1 − p)n is the chance of missing every time, and chance = 1 − (1 − p)n is the chance of at least one hit. Here p = rate ÷ 100, with the rate entered as a percentage (0 to 100), and n is the number of pulls. A fractional number of pulls is cut down to a whole number. The tool does not model pity counters, soft pity, 50/50 rules or guaranteed pulls: it assumes a flat rate on every pull, so the true odds in a game with pity are higher than shown near the pity limit. Check the rate your game publishes.

Worked example

Rate 0.6% and 90 pulls. p = 0.006, so each pull misses with probability 0.994. Missing all 90: 0.99490 ≈ 0.5818, shown as 58.18%. At least one hit: 1 − 0.5818 = 41.82%. So with a flat 0.6% rate, 90 pulls give a bit under a 42% chance.

Try this example →

Common mistakes

  • Entering the rate as a decimal. 0.6% must be typed as 0.6, not 0.006; typing 0.006 means 0.006%.
  • Typing a percent sign in the rate box. Only the number is accepted, and an entry like 0.6% gives no result.
  • Reading the result as a guarantee. 41.82% at 90 pulls means a 58% chance of getting nothing, and every new pull starts from the same odds again.
  • Applying it to a game with pity or a rate that rises over time. This tool assumes a constant rate on every pull.
  • Counting one item among several featured ones. Use the rate of the exact item you want, not of the whole rarity tier.

About this calculator

The probability of landing at least one target (featured) item across n independent pulls is P = 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ, where p is the per-pull drop rate and n is the number of pulls — the complement of "missing every single time," since each pull is an independent trial with the same base probability.

Mobile gacha-game players use this to judge whether a "pity" or guaranteed-pull threshold is worth saving currency for versus pulling early, and it explains why even a headline rate as low as 0.6% (common for 5-star characters in games like Genshin Impact) still passes even odds after about 116 pulls and reaches roughly two in three by 180.

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Comments (1)

  • Editorial team

    A common trap is to treat the number of pulls that equals one over the rate as a sure thing. At a 0.6 percent rate, 166 pulls gives 63.18 percent, not 100, and the pull count where the chance first passes 50 percent is about 116. A fair way to use the result is to decide your budget first and then read the chance. If your game has pity, how does it work, and what is the published rate?

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