HesapHanem

Expectancy per Trade Calculator

See what one average trade is really worth

How it is calculated

Enter the win rate as a percentage (0–100) and the average winning and average losing trade as positive money amounts. The loss is entered without a minus sign. With p = win rate / 100, the tool computes expectancy = p × avg win − (1 − p) × avg loss in money per trade. It also shows the expectancy in R, expectancy / avg loss, and the reward-to-risk ratio avg win / avg loss. A win rate outside 0–100, or a win or loss of zero or less, returns no result. Fees and slippage are not included, so deduct them from your averages first.

Worked example

Win rate 45 %, average win 300, average loss 150. So p = 0.45 and the loss rate is 0.55. Winners contribute 0.45 × 300 = 135 and losers cost 0.55 × 150 = 82.50. Expectancy = 135 − 82.50 = $52.50 per trade. In R that is 52.50 / 150 = 0.35, and the reward-to-risk ratio is 300 / 150 = 2.00. Over 100 trades the average outcome would be about $5,250 if the inputs hold.

Try this example →

Common mistakes

  • Typing the average loss as a negative number: the tool needs a positive amount and returns nothing for a negative one.
  • Entering the win rate as a fraction such as 0.45: it is read as 0.45 %, not 45 %.
  • Using the best or worst trade instead of the average of all winners and all losers.
  • Ignoring commissions and slippage, which can turn a small positive expectancy negative.
  • Trusting a result from a handful of trades: the win rate and averages are only reliable over a large sample.

About this calculator

Expectancy per trade tells a trader what one average trade is statistically worth, combining win rate and average win/loss size into a single number: expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). A positive expectancy means the trading system makes money over a large enough sample, regardless of any single trade's outcome; a negative expectancy means the system loses money even if individual trades occasionally win.

Traders and systematic strategy developers calculate expectancy because win rate alone is a poor measure of a strategy's quality — a system that wins 30% of the time can still be highly profitable if winners are much larger than losers, while a system that wins 70% of the time can lose money if losses are disproportionately large. Expectancy is also the building block for position-sizing decisions like the Kelly criterion.

Weight your average win by the win rate, subtract your average loss weighted by the loss rate, and you have the expected dollars per trade, a test of whether the strategy has a real statistical edge before more capital goes in.

Was this helpful?

You can pick up to 3 reactions.

Comments

  • Be the first to comment.

Popular calculators

Loan Calculator

Monthly payment, total interest and full amortization schedule.

Percentage Calculator

Percent change, percent of, and ratio calculations.

Discount Calculator

Calculate final price, savings, and discount amount.

BMI Calculator

Body mass index from height and weight (metric or imperial).

Age Calculator

Compute your exact age in years, months and days from a birth date.

Compound Interest Calculator

Calculate the final amount and interest earned with compounding.

All Calculators